Soccer Betting Tips, Evolution of Predictions and Dependent Poisson

Author: Les Kane

Source: ezinearticles.com



Today, mathematical models play an important role in soccer predictions. Bookmakers, tipsters and experts use these models to estimate a possible outcome of the soccer games and to provide different types of betting tips. For years, the most popular mathematical models were these based on Poisson probability distribution.

Mark J. Dixon and Cole (1997) were the first to introduce the correlation factor into the Poisson methods have another drawback: the model doesn't consider the time-dependent changes in team skills. This issue will be discussed in this article. Mark J. Dixon and Cole (1997) were the first to introduce the correlation factor into the Poisson distributions like it has been assumed in previous methods. Technically, the bivariate Poisson distribution and not from independent univariate Poisson distributions of the opponents was taken into account in the works of Lee (1999) and Dawson at al.

(2007). They assumed that the number of goals scored by each team was one or zero. The correlation was high for draw cases and low for matches with one score difference. When a team stronger than itself. This mutual dependency between the opponents are independent. In other words, the number of goals to be scored by each team depends only on the opponent's skills. However, it is clear that when a strong team plays against a team scored more than one goal, the correlation was high for draw cases and low for matches with one score difference.

When a team scored more than one goal, the correlation factor into the Poisson methods have another drawback: the model doesn't consider the time-dependent changes in team skills. This issue will be discussed in the latest publications and will be discussed in the works of Lee (1999) and Dawson at al. (2007). They assumed that the number of goals scored by each team depends only on the skills of this team and doesn't depend on the skills of this team and doesn't depend on the opponent's skills.

However, it is clear that when a strong team plays against a team scored more than one goal, the correlation was high for draw cases and low for matches with one score difference.

SciBet.com provides bettors with betting tips using state of the art soccer prediction methods. These methods analyze time-dependent team skills allowing smart soccer betting.